Over the last 10 years the Alberta housing market has grown aggressively with Calgary showing record level increases in house prices. Lots of people are making good money in Alberta and cities like Calgary have attracted workers from across Canada. Albertans have developed a confidence and sense of entitlement.
This is not the first time that Alberta has seen prosperous times. During the oil crisis in the 1970s Alberta boomed. The oil boom was creating more millionaires than any other time in Canada’s history. Then when it ended it went bust and so did the real estate market.
At an average price for oil of $110 per barrel over the last 3 years times have been good in Alberta. But, now that oil has dropped steeply and hitting a low of $59.28 yesterday Albertans are about to face a dose of reality. At these levels many wells will not be able to produce profitably and will have to be shut done. Workers will be let go. Producers and the chain of services and suppliers they engage will be forced to reduce expenses and contracts.
Depending on how steep and how long this lasts, many people that had moved to Alberta will likely look at moving back home. If it happens it will place downward pressure on house prices in Calgary. It also means that these individuals will be needing housing back home or in the city where they will find their next job. Toronto, with its diversified economy and booming job market will be a destination city for these individuals. They will need a place to live and their numbers will likely partially offset negative influences on house prices, if not boost prices. And that is how dropping oil prices can boost Toronto house prices.