Crude oil prices jumped this week driving big gains in energy stocks. Meanwhile, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and the unveiling of the Republican tax plan in the U.S. gave new life to the so-called “Trump trade” (gains in equities, bond yields, inflation expectations and the U.S. dollar) reflecting a growing expectation of tax cuts. Gold and most other major currencies retreated as a result.

West Texas Intermediate oil (WTI) leapt to a five-month high on a number of supports: the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia said they would stay focused on supply cuts and expected the global excess to clear, Turkey threatened to cut off Iraq’s exports following an independence referendum held by Iraqi Kurds, and U.S. industry data showed an unexpected decline in stockpiles. Energy stocks responded with a strong sector performance in Canada, and the best by far in the U.S.

U.S. Treasury yields stepped higher after Yellen said the Fed had to be “wary of moving too gradually.” The hawkish remark drove the greenback to six-week highs and pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to two-month highs. Financial stocks, whose profitability tends to improve with higher interest rates, jumped, while alternative yield plays (utilities, real estate, staples, telecom stocks) all lagged correspondingly. In contrast to Yellen, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz signaled a more cautious approach on future hikes in his first public words since the bank caught forecasters off guard with the September rate increase. The loonie promptly tumbled back to the level it was trading at prior to the September hike, and Government of Canada bond yields dropped, bucking the global move.

The falling loonie fueled broad strength in the S&P/TSX Composite index. Export-oriented sectors industrials and technology, which benefit from a weaker currency, joined energy and financials in posting solid gains. Materials joined the bond proxy groups in lagging performance, held back by weakness in gold miners as the metal price fell. In U.S. equities, the S&P 500 once again touched a new all-time high as the market advanced. Sector winners and losers mostly paralleled those in Canada, save for a dramatic sell-off of big-cap technology early in the week and its bounce back a few days later as risk appetite returned. Technology remains the clear leader year-to-date.

European bond yields rose alongside U.S. yields, bolstered by the highest European confidence reading in a decade. European stocks also advanced, despite last week’s German election which resulted in a more fragmented parliament that will have a harder time finding consensus on important issues, and the fourth round of Brexit negotiations seeming to cast more doubt on Britain’s economic outlook.

Asian markets were mixed. Japan gained slightly on the back of fiscal stimulus optimism after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap election, while others fell as North Korea concerns ramped up again. Chinese shares declined as tight restrictions were imposed on the property sector and an escalating push for cleaner air threatened to slow industrial activity.

The U.S. Federal Reserve policy statement this week drove most market movements – with the U.S. dollar, global bond yields, and equities all advancing – while precious metals and non-USD safe haven currencies were broadly lower. Once again all three major U.S. equity indices touched new highs, as did the MSCI World index. Gold retreated back below $1,300 USD/ounce, putting an end to its recent breakout to 12-month highs. The loonie also gave back some of its recent gains – in part due to U.S. dollar strength, but also in response to Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Timothy Lane saying the bank is “paying close attention” to the stronger dollar in its consideration of interest rate policy.

As expected, the Fed announced it will begin unwinding its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, by not reinvesting some of its bonds as they mature. It also reaffirmed its stance that low inflation was transitory, and said hurricane disruptions would not deflect it from its path to interest rate normalization. Better than expected economic data, including signs that Hurricane Harvey had less of a macro impact than feared, reinforced the case for policy tightening. Investors reacted with heightened expectations of a December rate hike.

In Canada, the heavily weighted financials and energy sectors boosted the S&P/TSX Composite Index to solid gains. Industrials and consumer discretionary stocks were also broadly higher. Energy names dominated the leader board as West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) extended its move above $50 USD/barrel. Financials moved higher with the global sector in response to rising bond yields – even though Moody’s reaffirmed its warnings about Canadian banks in the face of high mortgage debt and house prices. The bond-proxy groups – utilities, real estate, and consumer staples – struggled in response to rising interest rates. The materials sector also lagged, as precious metals miners tracked lower with gold and silver prices.

Despite reaching new highs mid-week, the S&P 500 finished virtually unchanged, one of the weakest showings among developed equity markets. As in Canada, financials and energy were among top performing major sectors. Lesser-weighted telecom services led the pack on talk of corporate mergers and acquisitions activity. Higher interest rates drove sell-offs in the bond-proxies, while top individual losers were mostly retailers facing more intense competition.

European bonds followed Treasuries lower, lifting rates, and almost all major equity indexes advanced as both the euro and the pound slipped relative to the U.S. greenback (although the euro retraced some of that move by week’s end). As headwinds from the euro’s recent strength faded, the Centre for European Economic Research’s (aka ZEW) economic sentiment indicator for Germany significantly beat expectations going into this weekend’s German elections. Similarly in Japan, a softer yen versus the dollar led to stock gains. The Bank of Japan, like the Fed, kept rates on hold this week, but unlike the Fed, showed no hints of becoming more aggressive anytime soon. Other Asian markets were generally higher as well, following global stock gains and a higher outlook for economic growth in China from the OECD.

Gold, yen, U.S. treasuries, and other safe havens all declined this week, while the U.S. dollar and most global equity markets advanced after damage from Hurricane Irma, although devastating, was less catastrophic than feared and North Korea, for a time, held off from testing another missile (it was eventually launched, Friday). There were also signs of better tax and fiscal policy progress in Washington. All three major U.S. equity indexes set new record highs, as did the MSCI All-Country World Index. Gold fell 1.9%, taking a break from its recent surge.

West Texas Intermediate crude prices (WTI) briefly climbed back above $50 USD for the first time since early August as refineries disrupted by Hurricane Harvey continued to resume operations and the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast of global demand growth. Surging energy stocks led the advance of the S&P TSX Composite. Also contributing significantly to the index’s gains were financials, which benefited from a move higher in global interest rates and bond yields, driven by the sell-off in U.S. treasuries and stronger than expected inflation readings in Britain and the U.S. (finally). The yield on Government of Canada 10-year bonds increased 10 basis points, but even greater gains in the yield of its U.S. counterpart and the stronger greenback pushed the Loonie down a fraction of a cent from its two-year high reached last week. Declining sectors included materials, where U.S. dollar strength led to falling industrial and precious metals prices, and utilities, telecom services, and real estate, all considered “bond proxies” that are pressured by rising interest rates.

U.S. equity markets were led by energy and financials, responding to rising yields and the recovery in crude prices, as they did in Canada. Financials got a further boost from insurers reacting to the better-than-expected Irma news. The S&P 500 Composite Index closed at new all-time highs on four of the five trading days. Utilities (a bond proxy) was the only sector registering a loss.

Share prices in Europe were even stronger than those in North America. The Stoxx Europe 600 climbed to a four week high as the higher U.S. dollar and the unwinding of safe haven currency trades let the Euro give back some of its recent strength that has been acting as a headwind for European stocks. The exception to this trend was in Britain. The FTSE 100 posted the only loss among major equity indexes after U.K. inflation accelerated more than forecasted, prompting a jump in the pound and indications from the Bank of England that its first rate hike in a decade might come soon.

Local currency weakness versus the U.S. dollar was the big story in Japanese equities as well. The Nikkei and Topix indexes saw their steepest increases in more than three months as the yen weakened. Most other Asian markets fared well with the ratcheting down of geopolitical risk early in the week and better than expected CPI data in China that reinforced views of improving global growth. The MSCI Asia Pacific and Emerging Markets indexes both reached multi-year highs.